Forecasters ’ Objectives and Strategies ∗
نویسندگان
چکیده
This chapter develops a unified modeling framework for analyzing the strategic behavior of forecasters. The theoretical model encompasses reputational objectives, competition for the best accuracy, and bias. Also drawing from the extensive literature on analysts, we review the empirical evidence on strategic forecasting and illustrate how our model can be structurally estimated.
منابع مشابه
Incentive-Compatible Forecasting Competitions
We consider the design of forecasting competitions in which multiple forecasters make predictions about one or more independent events and compete for a single prize. We have two objectives: (1) to award the prize to the most accurate forecaster, and (2) to incentivize forecasters to report truthfully, so that forecasts are informative and forecasters need not spend any cognitive effort strateg...
متن کاملStrategies in Naturalistic Decision-Making: A cognitive Task Analysis of Naval Weather Forecasting
The work reported here was undertaken to gain an understanding of the weather forecasting process in a naturalistic setting that involves task switching and moderate time pressure. In the first study, Navy weather forecasters verbalized their thoughts while they completed a standard forecasting task. In the second study, Navy weather forecasters completed a questionnaire after finishing each of...
متن کاملPsychological strategies for winning a geopolitical forecasting tournament.
Five university-based research groups competed to recruit forecasters, elicit their predictions, and aggregate those predictions to assign the most accurate probabilities to events in a 2-year geopolitical forecasting tournament. Our group tested and found support for three psychological drivers of accuracy: training, teaming, and tracking. Probability training corrected cognitive biases, encou...
متن کاملEfficient tracking of a growing number of experts
We consider a variation on the problem of prediction with expert advice, where new forecasters that were unknown until then may appear at each round. As often in prediction with expert advice, designing an algorithm that achieves near-optimal regret guarantees is straightforward, using aggregation of experts. However, when the comparison class is sufficiently rich, for instance when the best ex...
متن کاملDo Professional Forecasters Pay Attention to Data Releases?
We present a novel approach to assessing the attentiveness of professional forecasters to news about the macroeconomy. We nd evidence that professional forecasters, taken as a group, do not always update their estimates of the current state of the economy to reect the latest releases of revised estimates of key data. Key words: Professional forecasters, data revisions, inattention. JEL classi...
متن کامل